Updated Code for The Effect of a Cash Buffer on Returns

After some useful comments about the previous post (see comments section in that post), here is the updated R code.

mysummary <- function(x){
  s <- as.numeric(summary(x))
  s[7] <- sd(x)
  s[8] <- sum(x <= 0)
  names(s) <-  c("Min." ,   "1st Qu.", "Median" , "Mean"  ,  "3rd Qu.", "Max."  , 
                 "s.d." ,"No. of fails" )
  round(s, digits = 0)
}

years <- seq(1900, 2015) 
ret <- c(0.115,-0.035,0.035,0.018,0.123,0.038,0.186,-0.089,0.019,0.109,0.021,-0.015,0,-0.034,-0.005,
         -0.17,-0.173,-0.096,0.05,0.074,-0.34,0.34,0.393,0.028,0.176,0.173,0.055,0.148,0.173,-0.141,
         0.031,-0.162,0.383,0.248,0.13,0.116,0.159,-0.177,-0.079,-0.079,-0.153,0.192,0.184,0.121,0.113,
         0.048,0.173,-0.053,-0.083,-0.089,0.074,-0.031,-0.061,0.229,0.429,0.048,-0.117,-0.055,0.452,
         0.548,-0.001,-0.025,-0.022,0.177,-0.098,0.066,-0.074,0.311,0.398,-0.159,-0.105,0.344,0.081,
         -0.35,-0.581,0.996,-0.111,0.325,0.002,-0.049,0.171,0.013,0.219,0.223,0.258,0.137,0.227,0.048,
         0.044,0.258,-0.174,0.157,0.168,0.251,-0.086,0.192,0.131,0.193,0.106,0.217,-0.086,-0.138,-0.245,
         0.169,0.088,0.189,0.114,0.01,-0.304,0.259,0.089,-0.078,0.087, 0.174, -0.004, -0.001)

muret <- mean(ret)
sdret <- sd(ret)



## These are the variables to change

I0 <- 600 ## starting capital
nyrs <- 30 ## Number of years that money needs to last
spend <- 20 ## Annual expenditure
by <- c(0:5) ## buffer as years of expenditure

##########

CBfin <- NULL
Ifin <- NULL
smryI <- NULL
smryCB <- NULL

## ret <- 0.04 For testing only!!

for(k in 1:length(by)){
  CB0 <- by[k]*spend
  I0 <- I0 - CB0  ## Model now has constant total wealth  
  
  for(j in 1:10000){
    I <- I0
    CB <- CB0
    
    for(i in 1:nyrs){
      
      
      r <- sample(ret, 1)
      
      
      ## r <- rnorm(1,muret,sdret) ## Alternative way of estimating future return
      
      ## First section recalculates capital given earnings and spending
      
      e <- r*I  ## e = earnings
      
      if((I+e)>=(I0+spend)){
        I <- I+e-spend  ### If there is sufficient earnings to cover expenditure use that
      }else{
        
        if(CB>=spend){
          CB <- CB-spend  ### If there isn't use the cash buffer
          I <- I+e        ### This is what I forgot. Even though you haven't touched the capital it still needs to change
        }else{
          I <- I + e + CB - spend  ## if all else fails you eat into the capital and exhaust your cash buffer. I'd forgotten to include e in this.
          CB <- 0
        }
        
        
      }
      
      ## Second section recalculates cash buffer
      
      if((CB < CB0) & (I > I0)){    ### Not enough cash in the buffer but excess capital
        CB <- CB+I-I0               ### increase cash buffer by the growth in the capital
        I <- I0                     ### Set capital back to initial figure
        
        if(CB >= CB0){
          CB <- CB0                 ### If there is now too much cash in the buffer reinvest the excess
          I <- I + CB - CB0
        }
      }
      
      if(I<=0){
        I <- 0
        break 
      }
    }
    
    
    CBfin[j] <- CB
    Ifin[j] <- I
    
  }
  
  
  
  smryI[[k]] <- mysummary(Ifin)
  smryCB[[k]] <- mysummary(CBfin)
  
  
}

completesmryI <- do.call("rbind", smryI)
rownames(completesmryI) <- paste(by, "Year(s)")
completesmryI

completesmryCB <- do.call("rbind", smryCB)
rownames(completesmryCB) <- paste(by, "Year(s)")
completesmryCB

 

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